gallup: Americans’ initial estimates of the total amount they will spend on Christmas gifts this year point to an above-average holiday season for the nation’s retailers. While Gallup’s October spending forecast is a warm-up to its key measure in November, it finds Americans expecting to spend $781, on average, up from $704 last November.

These preliminary projections are positive, but it is important to note that Americans’ estimates of the total amount they will spend on gifts can change as the holiday season progresses. Last year, Americans’ average spending estimate fell by about $80 between October and November, and in 2008 and 2009, Gallup saw sharp declines in intended spending. By contrast, in 2011, the estimate rose by about $50 between October and November. In 2010, it stayed exactly the same.

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